![]() Who decides what the season's hurricane names will be? Here are the names for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season ![]() The National Hurricane Center will issue its prediction for the season later in May. Of those, two are expected to become major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that has maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or higher.Ĭolorado State University forecasters are predicting 13 named storms, with six reaching hurricane strength. Of those, one to three could reach major hurricane status. Even if an area hasn’t experienced a hurricane in several years, residents are advised to prepare for the season as if their area will take a hit – just in case.Watch Video: What can we expect from this year's hurricane season?ĪccuWeather forecasters are predicting 11 to 15 named storms in 2023, with four to eight reaching hurricane strength. The National Hurricane Center forecast another busy season in 2021, though it is not expected to be as extreme as 2020’s record 30 named storms. ![]() ![]() While southern coastal locations of the United States may be the most vulnerable to tropical cyclone impacts, it is important to understand that a devastating cyclone can hit anywhere along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. Major hurricanes – those with sustained wind speeds of 111 miles per hour and above – are also more common than they were in the 1970s and ‘80s. took the majority of those hits, Europe has been showing a steady increase in cyclones making landfall. Six storms made landfall elsewhere, including New England, Canada and the Azores.īy 2014-19, the Atlantic averaged 7.6 direct hits per year. Of those, 75% were in the usual hurricane-prone areas, such as the Southern United States, the Caribbean and Central America. I analyzed tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic that made landfall from 1972 to 2019 to look for changes over the past half-century.ĭuring the first six years of that period, 1972-77, the Atlantic averaged four direct hits per year. Todd Kimberlain/AOML NOAA Climate change changes the riskĪs sea surface temperatures rise with the warming of the planet, more areas outside of these usual hurricane regions may see more tropical storms. The probability that a named storm tropical storm or hurricane will affect a location at some point during hurricane season. North Carolina and Florida “stick out like a sore thumb” and are often grazed by hurricanes that curve up the east coast of the U.S. Miami and Cape Hatteras were found to have a 16% chance of a direct hit by a hurricane in any given year, and New Orleans’ chance was estimated at 12%.Įach of these locations is vulnerable to a hurricane because of its location, but also its shape. Hurricanes, which have sustained wind speeds of at least 74 miles per hour, were also more frequent in the three U.S. ![]() San Juan, Puerto Rico, which has seen some devastating storms in recent years, was at 42%. The chances rose for Miami and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, both at 48%. It found that New Orleans had about a 40% chance each year of a tropical storm strike. coastlines’ being hit by a tropical storm based on storm hits from 19. Where are the hurricane hot spots?Ī few years ago, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration analyzed the probability of U.S. However, the same hurricane might produce only a 10-foot storm surge along the Atlantic coastline, where the continental shelf drops off very quickly. How the shape of the seafloor affects a hurricane storm surge.Īs a result, a major hurricane hitting the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast – which has a very wide and shallow continental shelf – may produce a 20-foot storm surge. Toward the end of the season, trade winds begin to shift from west to east, ocean temperatures start to fall, and cold fronts can help divert storms away from the western Gulf and push them toward the Florida Panhandle. Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi, as well as Central America, are more likely to see hurricane strikes early in the season, as the trade winds favor an east-to-west motion.Īs surface waters gain heat over the summer, hurricane frequency and severity begin to increase, especially into the peak hurricane months of August through October. They typically form close to land, so coastal residents don’t have much time to prepare, but these storms also don’t have ideal conditions to gain strength. Most early-season hurricanes develop in a small area of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico where prime conditions begin early. NOAA Time of season also influences hurricane pathsĮarly in the season, in June and July, sea surface temperatures are still warming and atmospheric wind shear slowly decreases across the open Atlantic. The red dots suggest a hurricane every five to seven years. The numbers shown here reflect how often a hurricane would be expected within 50 nautical miles. ![]()
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